Basic Steps in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Seismic source characterization Estimation of source seismicity parameters (recurrence) parameters and probabilistic model Selection of ground motion attenuation models Treatment of Epistemic Uncertainties with Logic Tree Models Quantification of the seismic hazard The choice of method must be selected based on site characteristics, seismicity of region and the availability of data and future applications. form of hazard analysis; and the most widely used technique is the Cornell-McGuire approach [1, 2]. Two basic methodologies used for the purpose are the "deterministic" and the "probabilistic" seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approaches. Seismic Hazard - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics 1. Usually the earthquakes are assumed to occur on the portion of the site closest to the site. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis Maximum credible earthquake (MCE) is the maximum earthquake that appears capable of occurring under the known tectonic framework. FIGURE 13.1 The four steps of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). ANALYSIS SEISMIC HAZARD • Defined as a natural phenomenon (such as ground shaking, fault rupture, or soil liquefaction) that is generated by an earthquake, although there are examples of these phenomena also being produced by human activities. PDF A practical probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis tool ... hazard analysis, the deterministic and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Steps in Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (1) Sources (3) Ground Motion (4) Hazard at Site These are the basic steps in the deterministic analysis. (PDF) Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban ... Step 2: Surface Fault Rupture Displacement Hazard Analysis If a hazard exists, perform the Surface Fault Rupture Displacement Hazard Analysis, which includes determining the magnitude and direction of anticipated Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. PDF Fault Rupture Analysis (SFRDHA) where any portion of the ... PDF Kernel Density Estimation Techniques for Seismic Hazard ... Although PSHA has been pro-claimed as the best approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is scientiﬁcally ﬂawed (i.e., the physics and mathematics that PSHA is based on are not valid). Four steps of deterministic seismic hazard analysis (Kramer, 1996) 1. Identification and characterization of all sources Selection of source-site distance parameter Selection of controlling earthquake Based on the minimum distance from the site to the fault source, the level of ground shaking at the site is estimated. The first step is to identify all the possible sources of ground motion. PDF It will soon be complemented by a more comprehensive textbook However, using the Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) no further information is provided about the expected level of shaking or fault activation during pipeline life-cycle, the earthquake occurring probability and the effects of Earthquake Hazard Analysis | Lahontan Geoscience, Inc A Case Study of Seismic Hazard Analysis at Al-Tajiat and ... Determining the hazard at the site. rake angle), upper and lower seismogenic depth values, dip angle, etc. In the scenario earthquake, there is a precondition for an earthquake of a certain size and location to occur. The purpose of this study was to conduct seismic hazard analysis for Al-Tajiat and Al-Zawraa stadiums using probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The first is based on the seismic history, on the return period concept, and on the knowledge of existing faults, capable or not, and does not account for high mag-nitude events, whose occurrence has been assessed in the prehistoric age. In the present study Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) has been carried out for the states of Himachal Pradesh & Uttarakhand. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) has been applied to Dhamtari and Kanker sites using the following steps: A region of 300 km radius around both Dhamtari and Kanker sites were considered and all the faults having 25 km length were marked. PDF Seismic Hazard Analysis of District Headquarters Dhamtari ... Seismic hazard analysis should integrate both the deterministic and probabilistic characteristics of a region, since exclusion of effective factors result in misled judgment and prediction. The study area is Erzincan, which is a city on the eastern part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. PDF Seismic Hazard Assessment: Issues and Alternatives This research has developed a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method using fuzzy logic for estimating seismic hazard potential in each range. Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis. methodology followed for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) is described as four steps and illustrated in Figure 5. . . The basic steps in deterministic seismic hazard analysis include 1) defining earthquake source zones, 2) selection of the controlling earthquake which could be the earthquake which is reasona-bly expected or the maximum credible earthquake, 3) determination of the Following are the steps in hazard assessment: 1. The aim of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is to measure the probability of over and above range of ground action levels at a site given all probable earthquakes. Figure 3. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis requires the availability of an earthquake catalog, relevant ground motion prediction . Dr. Seismic HazardAnalysis Services. www.intechopen.com Any physical phenomenon ( e.g. I have a set of simple fault sources whose have a specific magnitude value, style-of-faulting (i.e. The first step in the conventional PSHA is the identification and characterization of the seismic sources. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) has been applied to Dhamtari and Kanker sites using the following steps: A region of 300 km radius around both Dhamtari and Kanker sites were considered and all the faults having 25 km length were marked. In the 1960s and 1970s, the DSHA was used as the main type of seismic hazard analysis, but it has been gradually replaced by the PSHA. The vulnerable source for Bangalore city is identiﬁed as Mandya-Channapatna-Bangalore lineament with an earthquake moment magnitude of 5.1. Seismic Hazard Evaluation Conduct seismic hazard deaggregation to determine dominant seismic sources and characteristics. Seismic hazard analysis is an approach for obtaining estimates of future earthquakes. the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6 -38 Nand68 -98 E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The steps involved in both deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) are outlined in Chapters 4 and 5 , respectively. !%) Four-steps process of a deterministic seismic hazard assessment 2- Case Study of Kerman As a case study, DSHA of . The PSHA can also be described as a procedure of four steps each of which bear some But Seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking hazards at a particular area. the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and the deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA). casting large earthquake. Seismic hazard analysis involves the quantitative estimation of ground shaking at a particular site or for a particular region. Seismic Waves. If the 1.e-4 annual seismic hazard probability is considered, then, the "conventional" deterministic SSI results based on DRS input, should be increased by the ratio between About 21 numbers of faults and lineaments are identiﬁed as a vulnerable sources as a ﬁrst step. Main components of this study are construction of local seismic velocity models, probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analyses, and estimation of corresponding potential ground motions. Norm Abrahamson will present a 6-week short course for CalGeo on Site Specific Seismic Ground Motion Hazard Analysis. Identification of the Type of Hazard: The first stage in hazard analysis is to identify the types of hazards. Depending on the types of hazards identified, the process may need to be continued on a separate basis for each type of hazard or group of hazard types. The investigative loom to PSHA was initialially Further, Chap-ter 3 introduces the proposed method for fuzzy-probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Seismic Hazard. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Tenzin Yangkey Duke University December 15, 2019 Abstract Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been used widely over the last 50 years by seis-mologist and engineers to quantify seismic hazard level and develop building code requirements to build safer buildings for the future. These sources may be in the form of point, line or area seismic source zone. Seismic hazard of engineering structures determines the probability of exceeding a specific level of damage or loss due to potential hazardous . - Deterministic Seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) Initial approach taken to seismic risk investigation discovered in nuclear power engineering applications In Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA), is organized for a meticulous earthquake, also realistic or assumed. deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. 45-hr Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Full-Length Online Course. Identification and characterization of all earthquake sources capable of producing significant ground motion at the site. provided by pattern recognition analysis. For the past two decades, the discussions are based mainly characteristic earthquake, at a specific location. Wang and C. Cobb, "A critque of probablistic versus [33] E. Zuccolo, F. Vaccari, A. Peresan, and G. F. Panza, "Neo- deterministic seismic hazard analysis with special reference to deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments: the New Mardid seismic zone," in Recent Advances in North a comparison over the Italian territory . These regions are shown in Figure 3.1 and Figure 3.2 respectively. Sessions will run each Friday starting May 22nd from 11am - 12:30pm. The deterministic approach estimates the intensity measure am-plitude (e.g., peak ground acceleration (PGA) as 0.2g) un- Brigham Young University BYU ScholarsArchive Theses and Dissertations 2016-07-01 Simplified Performance-Based Analysis for Seismic Slope Displacements deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA), are commonly used for seismic hazard assessment. Seismic Risk Analysis Assesses the probability of occurrence of losses (human, social, economic) associated with the seismic hazards. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis approach to determine PGA was adopted. ground shaking, ground failure) associated with an earthquake that may produce adverse effects on human activities. previous section, an even greater problem with deterministic hazard analysis is the choice of worst-case ground motion intensity associated with that earthquake. Seismic hazard analysis is an approach for obtaining estimates of future earthquakes. Norm Abrahamson, UC Berkeley. This is due to the reduced damping value in Deterministic SSI analysis (4% damping) than in Probabilistic SSI analysis (random values > 4%). Step 4 HAZARD AT THE SITE Neo-deterministic NDSHA . Seismic hazard can be quantified by adopting two globally accepted techniques: the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) and the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approaches. Maximum probable earthquake (MPE) is the maximum historical earthquake and the maximum earthquake likely to occur in a 100-year interval. A probabilistic approach has been used to assess the seismic hazard for Uganda and the surrounding areas. quake originating from nearby fault. SEISMIC HAZARD The seismic hazard can be . Deterministic seismic hazard analysis was the first method- ology developed; it comprises four steps (Reiter 1990): 1. The case study about the seismic hazard in Yunnan Province in China is in vestigated in Chapter 4. seismic hazards. Some of these will be easy to identify (e.g., a known active fault); others may be more difficult to describe. Seismic hazards can be analyzed deterministically as and when a particular earthquake scenario is assumed, or probabilistically, in which uncertainties in earthquake size, location, and time of occurrence are explicitly considered (Kramer, 1996). The hazard at the site is formally defined, usually in terms of the ground motions produced at the site by the controlling earthquake. DSHA is often used in California due to the familiarity of faults and the region's elevated seismicity. The last session will be Friday June 26th, 2020. Seismic Hazard Assessment Methodology To access the seismic parameters, a probabilistic or deterministic methodology is necessary. The site ground motions are estimated deterministically, given the magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site condition. (c) Characterize the distribution of source-to-site distances from each source. Steps in Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (1) Sources (3) Ground Motion (4) Hazard at Site These are the basic steps in the deterministic analysis. Seismic hazard in an area can be estimated by either the probabilistic seismic hazard assess-ment approach (PSHA) or the deterministic seismic hazard assessment approach (DSHA) [ ]. 1. Presented by Dr. applications, seismic hazard analysis can also be used to prepare macro or micro zoning maps of an area by estimating the strong-motion parameters for a closely spaced grid of sites. Main steps are written below (Kramer, 1996). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different . Confirm that the fault rupture hazard exists by repeating some or all of the preliminary screening performed by the Geoprofessional. A hazard assessment of the 1976 Guatemala earthquake (M = 7.5) was conducted to achieve a better definition of the seismic hazard. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are . A Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis(DSHA) typically assigns a maximum earthquake magnitude for a particular seismic source, often referred to as the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) provides a framework in which these uncertainties can be identified, quantified, and combined in a rational manner to provide a more complete picture of the seismic hazard. Seismic-Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: An Integrated Probabilistic-Deterministic Method by Vincenzo Convertito,* Antonio Emolo, and Aldo Zollo Abstract Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the The computation of seismic hazard and probability of occurrence of ground motion levels during a specified period of time using the integration of the above three steps over all possible magnitudes and earthquake locations. The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis of "GORAKHPUR" Region (IJSTE/ Volume 2 / Issue 09 / 065) [23] IS-1893 (Part1): 2002, Indian Standard Criteria for Earthquake Resistant Design of . SEISMIC HAZARD. The seismic hazard at a site can be quantiied by undertaking deterministic or probabil-istic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) (Erdik 2017). Fig. DETERMINISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (DSHA) © 2021 29 •Ground shaking hazard is assessed by identifying a specific earthquake "event scenario" -one for which the combination of magnitude and distance (together with other pertinent source and site parameters) provide large levels of ground shaking After Fernandez, 2010 (GMPE) In the context of a probabilistic ground motion analysis, hazard refers to the probability of exceedance certain amplitude of ground motion. Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) with fragility (probability of failure) of the dam and the . Compute epistemic uncertainty variability from Steps 1 and 2 . Key words: Deterministic hazard analysis, estimation of the strong earthquake ground motion at a site of interest, Republic of Serbia 1. Typically, they can be defined as four procedures (Reiter, 1990): Deterministic seismic hazard analysis gives a cap value for the Probabilistic Seismic hazard analysis. This research has developed a deterministic seismic hazard analysis method using fuzzy logic for estimating seismic hazard potential in each range. 360 Earthquake Hazard, Risk, and Disasters speciﬁc application of PSHA at a site, such as the types of earthquake sources, Step 4 (a) Identify earthquake sources. Uganda is situated between the two seismically active branches of the East African Rift Valley System, which are characterized by high levels of seismicity. Now I would like to compute deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) results in order to compare the results with PSHA. Target Spectra Development Develop design or analysis target spectra using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) or probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) in accordance with the design or analysis criteria. The seismic hazard at Vandenberg AFB was investigated using both statistical analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution of historic earthquake activity within 500 km of Point Arguello, California, and deterministic methods based on knowledge of earthquake faults and Diagrams showing four steps of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis [3]. The hazards are related to two basic phenomena resulting from the failure of a geological fault. (d) Predict the result-ing distribution of ground motion . Both approaches can be defined in a four-step process, and their initial steps are identical (Reiter 1990 ). 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